Jin-Chuan DUAN
"Big Data is great to have, but Smart Data is what we need! Transforming Big Data into Smart Data is what I do."
(Last update: July 3, 2023)
The NUS Credit Research Initiative (CRI) -- Transforming Big Data into Smart Data
After 14 years of working on the Credit Research Initiative (CRI; http://www.criat.sg), the baton has been passed on June 30, 2023. As its founder and champion all these years, CRI has meant a great deal to me personally, but retirement is inevitable in one's professional journey. I would like to thank many individuals and institutions for offering me their help and believing in this public good undertaking. I wish CRI a continued success.
CRI of the National University of Singapore operates on a delivery platform that offers freely accessible, daily updated term structures of default probabilities and actuarial spreads on over 90,000 exchange-listed firms in over 135 economies globally. Founded on a credit rating reform drive and launched in 2009, CRI was my constructive response to the great global financial crisis, intending to also serve as a live platform for research into Big Data Analytics and digital finance. The CRI platform has been operating in a Wikipedia style – inclusive, organically evolving, and welcoming participations from the broader research and financial community.
Criat -- Converting Smart Data to Actionable Data
In 2017, I co-founded Criat (CRI Analytical Technologies; http://www.criat.sg), a Singapore registered FinTech company and an NUS spin-off specializing in Deep Credit Analytical Technologies. The company provides DeepCredit® analytical products and services to financial institutions with its unique blend of interpretable AI/Big Data Analytics with the established econometric/statistical methodologies for dynamic models. I have been serving as its non-executive chairman since the founding.
Research Papers (Refer to Duan's curriculum vitae for the list of published papers)
30. "Media Sentiments for Enhanced Credit Risk Assessment" by J.C. Duan and X. Yao, 2022 (August). Click here to download.
29. "Credit Risk Cycle Indices - Properties and Macroprudential Policy" by J.C. Duan and Y. Zhu, 2020 (June). Click here to download.
28. "Dynamic Macro Scenario Analysis via Bridge Sampling" by J.C. Duan and Y. Zhu, 2020 (June). Click here to download.
27. "Proxy CDS Curves for Individual Corporates Globally" by J.C. Duan, 2020 (July). Click here to download.
26. "Variable Selection with Big Data based on Zero Norm and via Sequential Monte Carlo" by J.C. Duan, 2019 (April). Click here to download.
25. "Dynamic Credit Rating Migration with a Prior Belief Structure" by J.C. Duan, 2019 (January). Click here to download.
24. "Predicting Recovery Rate at the Time of Corporate Default" by J.C. Duan and R.C. Hwang, 2018 (Novermber). Click here
to download.
23. "Financial Network and Systemic Risk via Forward-Looking Partial Default Correlations" by J.A. Chan-Lau, C. Chuang, J.C. Duan and W. Sun, 2018 (June). Click here to download.
22. "Non-Gaussian Bridge Sampling with an Application" by J.C. Duan and C. Zhang, 2016 (March). Click here
21. "Stress Testing with a Bottom-Up Corporate Default Prediction Model" by J.C. Duan, W. Miao and T. Wang, 2014 (August). Click here
to download.
20. "Liquidity and Default" by J.C. Duan and Qiqi Zou, 2014 (June). Click here
to download.
19. "Cascading Defaults and Systemic Risk of a Banking Network" by J.C. Duan and C. Zhang, 2013 (November). Click here
to download.
18. "Multiperiod Corporate Default Prediction with Partially-Conditioned Forward Intensity" by J.C. Duan and A. Fulop, 2013 (September). Click here
to download.
17. "Price and Volatility Dynamics Implied by the VIX Term Structure" by J.C. Duan and Chung-Ying Yeh, 2012 (June). Click here
to download.
16. "Clustered Defaults" by J.C. Duan, 2010. Click here
to download.
15. "How Frequently Does the Stock Price Jump? - An Analysis of
High-Frequency Data with Microstructure Noises" by J.C. Duan and A. Fulop, 2007.
Click here
to download.
14. "Jump Starting GARCH: Pricing and Hedging Options with Jumps in Returns
and Volatilities" by J.C. Duan, P. Ritchken and Z. Sun, 2007. Click here
to download.
13. "On Diversification Discount - the Effect of Leverage" by J.C. Duan and
Y. Li, 2006. Click here
to download.
12. "On the Equivalence of the KMV and Maximum Likelihood Methods for
Structural Credit Risk Models" by J.C. Duan, G. Gauthier and J.G. Simonato,
2004. Click here
to download.
11. "Estimating Merton's Model by Maximum Likelihood with Survivorship
Consideration" by J.C. Duan, G. Gauthier, J.G. Simonato and S. Zaanoun, 2003.
Click here to
download.
10. "Indexing Executive Stock Options Relatively" by J.C. Duan and J. Wei,
2003. Click here to
download.
9. "A Specification Test for Time Series Models by a Normality
Transformation" by J.C. Duan, 2003. Click here to download
the paper and here
to download the computer programs.
8. "Nonparametric Option Pricing by Transformation" by J.C. Duan, 2002.
Click here to
download.
7. "Risk Premium and Pricing of Derivatives in Complete Markets" by J.C.
Duan, 2001. Click here to download.
6. "Conditionally Fat-Tailed Distributions and the Volatility Smile in
Options" by J.C. Duan, 1999. Click here to download.
5. "A Unified Theory of Option Pricing under Stochastic Volatility- from
GARCH to Diffusion" by J.C. Duan, 1996. Click here to download.
4. "Term Structure and Bond Option Pricing under GARCH" by J.C. Duan, 1996.
Click here to
download.
3. "Fast Valuation of Derivative Contracts by Simulation" by J.C. Duan, G.
Gauthier and J.G. Simonato, 1999. Click here to download.
2. "A Goodness-of-Fit Test Using Relative Entropy (Previous title: Testing
Conditional Distributions in Dynamic Models using Relative Entropy)" by J.C.
Duan and M. So, 2001. Click here to download.
1. "Semi-parametric Pricing of Derivative Warrants" by J.C. Duan and Y.
Yan, 1999. Click here to download.
Computer Programs
1. Local-Momentum Autoregression and the Modeling of Interest Rate Term Structure (in R)
2. Corporate default prediciton - a forward intensity approach (in Matlab)
3. Estimating the structural credit risk model with a particle filter (in Matlab)
4. Co-integration option pricing model (in GAUSS)
5. GARCH option pricing model and its application to volatility smile (in
GAUSS)
6. Analytical approximation to the GARCH option pricing model (in Matlab)
7. Linear and non-linear asymmetric GARCH models (in GAUSS)
8. Augmented GARCH model - an all encompassing framework (in GAUSS)
9. Estimating exponential affine term structure models (in GAUSS)
Teaching Material
Other Links
...